Year-end is the live bet; November is not
If Pete Hegseth is still Secretary of Defense at the end of November, the odds of an exit announcement by December 31 sit somewhere around 60 to 70 percent. That is the more likely outcome, but it is far from locked in.
The immediate window through the end of this month looks lower, roughly 35 to 40 percent. Trump is still publicly standing by him, and a forced House vote next week could easily be delayed or defeated. At the same time, the private pressure from advisers and the midterm fallout are real, so an early exit cannot be ruled out.
Why December is the more practical window
By December the practical reasons to move him grow stronger. Republicans still control the Senate until January, which makes confirming a replacement easier. The war and the election losses remain useful reasons to name a scapegoat. Hearings and further demands for accountability will keep building even if nothing dramatic happens in the next couple of weeks.
None of that guarantees a decision, but it tilts the odds toward him being gone before the new year rather than still in place on January 1.
What would keep him through January 1
Public presidential cover is still the strongest shield. If Trump keeps defending him, if the House vote slips or fails, and if advisers lose the argument that a December swap is worth the confirmation fight, he can still be sitting in the Pentagon when the calendar flips. The year-end contract is a probability, not a schedule.
What would flip Yes faster
A qualifying announcement of resignation or removal resolves the market immediately, even if the effective date is later. That is the path traders should watch: a White House or Pentagon statement, or a consensus of credible reporting that he is out as Secretary of Defense before the deadline (ET).