Political Event Predictions
AI-powered analysis for political markets
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?
Ohio · Governor race
Editorial read: No — the TV spot looks deliberate; private polling, Ohio GOP/donor pressure, station refusals, or Trump/Vance distance are the paths to a pull.
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France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?
France · Article 36 / état de siège
Editorial read: No — weekend riots are not armed insurrection; government rejects even état d’urgence; Macron sticks to policing and targeted assembly bans.
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Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by…?
White House · Trump presidency
Editorial read: No on a quick exit — tenure norms, Trump’s public backing, and debut-week noise rarely force a press secretary out after one briefing.
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Cockroach Party leader Abhijeet Dipke arrested again by…?
India · Cockroach Janata Party
Editorial read: December > October — protest cycles and prior preventive custody favor year-end; October window tight after mourning and light-touch policing options.
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US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
Energy · US–Russia trade
Editorial read: Yes — three tankers en route under OFAC GL 135; Agioi Fanendes ETA New York ~Nov 7; Polymarket Yes ~80%, fair read ~90%.
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Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?
Maritime · Gulf of Aden & Somalia
Editorial read: close — six merchant seizures in 2026, but contract pays on one more before October; fair read ~45–50% Yes, Polymarket ~68%.
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Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?
Middle East — Strait of Hormuz
Editorial read: durable Yes — Poisson GLM and Monte Carlo simulations put 96–100% probability of another qualifying Iranian strike or seizure; Polymarket Yes ~84%.
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US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
Trade · US & China
House bet: Yes — truce extension + ~$30B/side reciprocal easing expected; Polymarket Yes mid-60s% ahead of Trump-Xi Beijing (May 13).
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2028 US Presidential Election Winner
Presidential Election
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Primary Election
Who will win the Democratic nomination in 2028?
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Primary Election
Who will win the Republican nomination in 2028?
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10-Year Treasury Yield 2025
Treasury Market
Will 10-year Treasury yields reach 4.6% or higher by December 31, 2025?
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Fed Decision in April?
Federal Reserve
Answer: No change (0 bps). April 28–29 FOMC; 3.50%–3.75% range; FedWatch and Polymarket ~97% hold.
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Which Party Will Win the House in 2026?
House Control
Democrats predicted to win with 75-80% confidence. Analysis of razor-thin GOP majority, polling, and midterm patterns.
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Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?
Israel — coalition & courts
Editorial read: durable “No” — kingmaker math, rising right-wing polls, Netanyahu’s shield, and why the High Court’s April 2026 interim steps may delay rather than force removal.
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Middle East Conflict
Primary phase concludes mid-to-late May 2026, full resolution by early-to-mid June 2026. Analysis based on ISW reports showing 75% missile launcher destruction and regime instability.
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