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Resolved Predictions Archive

Historical analysis of completed Polymarket predictions with verified AI prediction accuracy

🏆 WIN
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Fed December 2025 Rate Decision

✅ RESOLVED: 25 bps Cut
Resolved: December 2025 | AI Prediction: ✅ CORRECT (95% Confidence)

AI correctly predicted 25 basis point cut at 95% probability. Fed delivered exactly as predicted, validating our analysis.

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🏆 WIN

Bitcoin Country Adoption

✅ RESOLVED: YES
Resolved: November 2025 | AI Prediction: ✅ CORRECT
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🏆 WIN
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Kabuto Card $100 Market

✅ RESOLVED: YES
Resolved: December 2025 | AI Prediction: ✅ CORRECT

AI correctly predicted YES - Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 before deadline. Analysis identified manipulation risk that materialized as predicted.

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🏆 WIN

Ethereum December 2025

✅ RESOLVED: $3,400 Target
Resolved: December 2025 | AI Prediction: ✅ CORRECT

AI correctly predicted ETH would stay in $3,200-$3,600 range with $3,400 target (63% odds). Market resolved in our favor, validating prediction methodology.

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🏆 WIN
West Bengal assembly election market

West Bengal 2026 — BJP most seats

India — from Politics hub
Polymarket resolved YES. Full SIR roll thesis and pre-election analysis archived here.
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Archived
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick market

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?

U.S. House — archived analysis
Moved from the live Politics hub after the May 31, 2026 window. Original House Ethics thesis and timeline preserved for reference.
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RESOLVED YES
Rojas Texas abortion market

Rojas Texas Illegal Abortion Case

Legal — from Other Markets
Polymarket resolved YES (guilty before deadline). Full write-up archived here.
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RESOLVED YES
Senator Eichorn market

Senator Eichorn Child Solicitation

Legal — from Other Markets
Polymarket resolved YES (guilty before deadline). Full write-up archived here.
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YES ~90¢
Hantavirus US case by May 15 Polymarket market

Hantavirus US Case by May 15?

Public health — from Other Markets
Archived when Polymarket YES repriced near 90¢. Full CDC baseline and seasonality write-up preserved.
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❌ WRONG

TikTok Sale December 2025

❌ RESOLVED: NO
Resolved: December 2025 | AI Prediction: ❌ INCORRECT

AI incorrectly predicted YES - TikTok sale was NOT announced by December 31, 2025. Despite reports of a signed deal, no public announcement was made before the deadline.

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Verified Outcomes

All resolved markets include verified outcomes and documented AI prediction accuracy. Historical records maintained for reference.

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Complete Analysis

Each resolved market includes pre-resolution odds, AI predictions, confidence levels, final outcomes, and detailed analysis.

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Citation-Worthy

All resolved predictions include comprehensive references and citations suitable for academic and professional use.