What price will Solana hit in October 2026?
How this October 2026 market works
The Polymarket “What price will Solana hit in October?” event is a set of binary contracts on whether SOL’s 1-minute candle on Binance (SOL/USDT) trades through a listed price at any time from 00:00 ET October 1 through 23:59 ET October 31. It resolves November 1, 2026. Upside (↑) contracts resolve Yes on a 1-minute high at or above the strike. Downside (↓) contracts resolve Yes on a 1-minute low at or below the strike. Re-listed contracts ignore price action from before they were created.
Spot (Oct 14, 2026): $107.63. October high so far: $123.76. October low so far: $101.69. About 18 days remain. Event volume is about $252k. Realized volatility this month is about 2.7% per day (~52% annualized), the highest of the three majors.
Already fulfilled — do not trade these: original ↑ $120 and ↑ $110 (the high cleared both, including re-lists through October 9), and ↓ $120 and ↓ $110 (the low cleared them, including re-lists through October 11). The October 12 re-list of ↑ $110 is still open: the high since that listing is $109.07. The October 7 re-list of ↑ $120 is also open: the high since then is $117.23. ↓ $100 stopped $1.69 short.
Live Polymarket odds (Oct 14) — open contracts only
| Threshold | Yes price (implied prob.) | Volume (approx.) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 200 / 180 / 160 | 0.4–2% | $4k–$16k | Not in range |
| ↑ 150 / 140 | ~3% / ~6.5% | $9k / $19k | Needs a trend reversal |
| ↑ 130 | ~13.5% | $11k | +21% from spot. Rich |
| ↑ 120 (from Oct 7) | ~34% | $2k | Not yet hit. High since listing $117.23 |
| ↑ 110 (from Oct 12) | ~65% | Thin | Key open contract. High since listing $109.07 |
| ↓ 100 | ~55% | $4k | Still open. Month low $101.69 |
| ↓ 90 / 80 | ~17% / ~7% | $16k / $24k | Deeper dip |
| ↓ 70 and below | 1.4% → ~0.2% | Lower | Tail |
Key drivers for the rest of October
- Technical picture: SOL is the high-beta lagging major, trading $107–$108 after an October range of $101.69–$123.76. The live near strike is the October 12 ↑ $110 re-list, only about 2.2% above spot and $0.93 above the high since that market opened. ↓ $100 is about 7% lower and has not printed.
- Catalysts / risks: SOL amplifies BTC and ETH into September CPI (October 14) and the October 27–28 FOMC. At ~2.7% daily vol, a 2% tag over 18 days is the ordinary outcome; a return to $130 is not. Liquidity on the re-listed $110 contract is thin, so the price can gap away from fair value.
Our probability view vs the market
- ↑ 110 from October 12 — ~76% (market ~65% → edge on Yes). A 2.2% upside tag with 2.7% daily vol and 18 days left is the base case. We haircut the raw touch probability because SOL has been drifting down from $124, and the contract is still not fulfilled ($109.07 high since listing).
- ↑ 120 from October 7 — ~30% (market ~34%). Slight edge to No. High since listing $117.23, so this one is open.
- ↑ 130 — ~7% (market ~13.5%). The crowd is paying too much for a 21% rally.
- ↓ 100 — ~52% (market ~55%). The $101.69 low leaves it open. Close to fair.
- ↓ 90 and below — market prices already fade quickly enough.
Bottom line for traders
The original ↑$110 and ↑$120 contracts are settled Yes. The live disagreement is the October 12 ↑ $110 re-list, marked about 65% against our ~76% fair value. That is the Yes side with edge, with the caveat that the book is thin. ↑$130 is the clear rich longshot.
Most probable path: SOL tags $110 again before month-end without revisiting $120 on the October 7 window, and the $100 low stays a coin flip. This is informational analysis, not a recommendation to trade.
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